The probability of reaching a permanent peace agreement between the United States and Iran before April 30th in Polymarket has dropped to 18%, a decrease of 17% in 24 hours Odaily Seer's Prophet Channel monitoring shows that the probability of Polymarket reaching a permanent peace agreement between the United States and Iran before April 30th has dropped significantly to 18%, a decrease of 17% in 24 hours. As of now, the total transaction amount of the "US Iran reaching a permanent peace agreement before the designated date" event contract has exceeded 35 million US dollars. The contract rules for this event are: if Iran and the United States reach a permanent peace agreement before the specified date (11:59 pm Eastern Time), the market will be judged as' yes', otherwise the market will be judged as' no '. A permanent peace agreement refers to any agreement that explicitly states that military hostilities between the United States and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses similar language to explicitly state that military hostilities between the United States and Iran will permanently end. Explicitly stating that a temporary agreement or a final agreement that does not include a permanent end to military hostilities between the United States and Iran (such as the temporary extension of the two-week ceasefire agreement announced on April 7, 2026) does not meet the conditions, the main source of information for this market is official information from the governments of the United States and Iran; But other credible reports can also be referenced. The tension escalated sharply on the eve of the expiration of the US Iran ceasefire agreement, with Iran refusing to attend negotiations in Islamabad and accusing the United States of obstructing the achievement of a substantive agreement. US President Trump announced an extension of the ceasefire in response to Pakistan's request, but threatened to continue bombing Iran once the deadline passed, while maintaining a maritime blockade and expanding sanctions against Iran. Vice President Vance has cancelled his trip to Pakistan. At present, Iran has blocked the entrance and exit of the Strait of Hormuz and publicly displayed ballistic missiles in Tehran, claiming to be fully prepared for the resumption of hostilities. Odaily Seer's Prophet channel continues to monitor and predict the market, seeing changes before pricing.