The second round of U.S.-Iran negotiations has basically fallen apart! Bitcoin's trend reversal window has arrived! Trump found an excuse to save face and unilaterally announced an extension of the ceasefire. Brent crude oil prices have risen to around $100, which means: Inflation pressure is increasing: Oil prices are a core component of CPI, and rising oil prices will push inflation expectations higher. Rate cut expectations are frustrated: With high inflation, the Fed will find it harder to cut rates, which is unfavorable for risk assets. Geopolitical risk premium: Oil prices breaking $100 is essentially the market pricing in war risks. Bitcoin has reached a critical trend reversal window and is showing signs of stagnation. Bullish momentum has started to weaken! The weekly 4th wave dead cat bounce is running out of steam. Prices are being suppressed below the strong gravitational zone at the 0.786 Fibonacci channel level. I think the next day or two could be a good time to open small short positions on BTC for mid-term trades, even though the main bearish forces haven't entered the market yet. Start with a 5% position size—if stopped out, the loss will be limited. If the direction is correct, you can add to the position after breaking key support levels. Not investment advice, for reference only. Trade at your own risk!