xiyu|Apr 21, 2026 02:39
Crypto Macro Weekly Report: Data Splitting.
BTC rose 5.3% to $75.6K this week, and spot ETFs had a net inflow of $871M per week, which was 63% higher than last week's $534M. BlackRock's holdings are approaching 800000 BTC, with whales selling over 270000 units per month, and the exchange balance dropping to 2.21 million BTC - a 7-year low.
On the surface, it appears that institutions are swallowing chips.
But the total market value of stablecoins dropped from ATH $318.6B per week to $308.9B, evaporating $10 billion in a week. The perpetual contract funding rate is -0.0094/8h, and the bears are paying the bulls - that is to say, this wave of increase is not a real inflow of spot goods, but a passive replenishment of the bears' positions.
The fear of greed has increased from 16 to 27, but it is still in the fear zone and has not crossed the neutral line of 45.
The cash flow equilibrium price for miners is $77K, and the current price of $75.6K is stuck below, indicating that inefficient miners are still slowly surrendering.
On one hand, ETFs provide exclusive support, while on the other hand, stablecoins bleed and leverage idles. If the stablecoin continues to fall next week and the 10Y US Treasury bond breaks 4.5%, it is likely to first drop to $68-70K before discussing further gains.
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