BitUnix analyst: The pricing power of the US dollar swings between policy credibility and war outcomes, and the market enters a risk redistribution stage dominated by exchange rates. 】 According to BlockBeats, on April 21st, the market began trading on the 'who dominates the termination conditions'. Trump explicitly compressed the ceasefire window while maintaining the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz as a bargaining chip, turning energy supply risks into negotiation tools; But Iran's internal division on negotiation positions makes it difficult to form a consensus path in the short term. This causes geopolitical risks to be triggered by a single event that has a sustained impact on expected variables. In this context, the core driving logic of the US dollar has undergone a turning point: it is no longer limited to interest rate differentials and hedging, but focuses on comprehensive pricing of "policy credibility and liquidity paths". On the one hand, before the hearing, Walsh released a clear hawkish framework of "maintaining independence and sticking to inflation", essentially denying the possibility of aggressive interest rate cuts in the short term, which forms structural support for the US dollar; On the other hand, political pressure continues to cut interest rates, and the market is still trading the potential path of "balance sheet contraction hedging interest rate cuts", leading to the inability of the US dollar to form a unilateral trend and instead entering a volatile range. Structurally, DXY has fallen from its high rebound (around 100.5) and is currently oscillating around 98, entering a short-term weak consolidation. However, there is still a clear continuation in the 97.4-97.0 range below. This represents that the market has not yet fully shifted towards risk appetite, but is reassessing whether the US dollar still has the advantages of hedging and interest rate spreads. In other words, the US dollar is currently not bearish, but entering a "pricing divergence period" - the upper part is constrained by policy dominance and expectations of interest rate cuts, while the lower part is supported by war and inflation. This dollar structure directly affects the operational mechanism of the cryptocurrency market. BTC is currently undergoing repeated testing around 76K, while 72.5K below remains a key receiving area, indicating overall liquidity redistribution within the range. The "non trend but high volatility" feature of the US dollar will amplify BTC's false breakout and liquidity harvesting behavior, rather than driving a one-sided market trend. The key lies in two potential paths for the future of the US dollar: if the war escalates and energy inflation persists, the Federal Reserve will be forced to maintain high interest rates, and the US dollar will strengthen again, corresponding to the liquidity range above BTC (77K-78K), which is more likely to become a bullish zone; On the contrary, if negotiations make progress, the Strait of Hormuz resumes navigation, and inflation expectations fall, the market will reprice the path of interest rate cuts, the US dollar will weaken, and BTC will have the conditions to break through high liquidity and extend. In summary, the current market trend has shifted from 'risk events themselves' to' how the US dollar prices these events'. Before the clear direction of the US dollar is formed, the cryptocurrency market will essentially maintain range volatility and be dominated by liquidity rather than trend.