Citigroup predicts disruption in the Strait of Hormuz could cause oil prices to rise to $130 per barrel

According to Citigroup, if the navigation in the Strait of Hormuz is blocked for a month, oil prices may rise to $110 per barrel, and global crude and refined oil storage losses are expected to reach 1.3 billion barrels. Even if a ceasefire extension agreement is signed this week and navigation and production gradually resume in May, inventory may still decrease by about 900 million barrels, including 500 million barrels already lost and 400 million barrels expected to be lost due to production delays and conflict damage. If the interruption is extended to 2 months, the loss could reach 1.7 billion barrels, and oil prices could rise to $130 per barrel. Citigroup predicts that even if the conflict ends this week, inventory at the end of June will still drop to the lowest level in 8 years, and rebuilding inventory may take more than two years, even if the market returns to a daily oversupply of 1 million barrels.