Flying Dragon Daily｜April 20, 2026 Three days ago, oil prices plummeted by 15%, and today they’ve almost fully rebounded! The situation has completely shifted: 1. The U.S. aircraft carrier is now in position 2. Iran refuses to continue negotiations 3. The Houthis are threatening to close the Mandeb Strait 4. Both sides are accusing each other of violating the ceasefire 5. U.S. forces are preparing to expand seizures of Iranian oil tankers The ceasefire expires on the 22nd, the day after tomorrow. Three days ago, everyone was celebrating peace, but now it’s looking more and more like a pre-war scenario. Here’s how I see the possible outcomes: 1. Best-case scenario A last-minute extension of the ceasefire, though unlikely. The market sees a small rebound. 2. Moderate scenario Ceasefire ends, both sides exercise restraint and avoid full-scale conflict. Oil prices fluctuate at high levels, and BTC continues to move sideways. 3. Worst-case scenario Full escalation, both straits end up closed. Oil prices surge past $130+, BTC drops below $70K. Final thoughts: It’s highly unlikely the 22nd will pass smoothly. Expect significant market volatility ahead. The chances of a direct ceasefire extension are slim. Stay tuned to the market!