HTX DeepThink: The macro logic of the cryptocurrency market shifts from "inflation shock" to "geopolitical easing", and Bitcoin enters a dual pricing stage of liquidity and risk preference On April 20th, according to TechFlow, Chloe (@ Chloe Talk1), a columnist for HTX DeepThink and a researcher at HTX Research, analyzed that the core macro variable of the cryptocurrency market is rapidly shifting from "inflation shock" to "deflation expectation correction brought about by geopolitical easing". As Israel and Lebanon reach a short-term ceasefire agreement and the United States and Iran may resume negotiations this weekend, the market is beginning to reprice the "Middle East conflict downgrade". The direct impact of this change is that the risk premium in the energy market has loosened, and the expectation of a decline in oil prices has increased, thereby weakening the previously energy driven upward logic of inflation. For macro assets, this means a crucial turning point: the core narrative that previously supported "anti inflation assets" such as gold and Bitcoin - that energy shocks push up inflation and force central banks to tolerate higher price levels - is being partially reversed. If substantive progress is made in the negotiations on the Iranian nuclear issue, and even a phased agreement is reached (such as restricting nuclear activities, partially lifting sanctions, and releasing crude oil supplies), oil prices may experience a trend decline, thereby lowering inflation expectations in the coming months. This will directly alleviate the upward pressure on the interest rate market and provide a temporary repair window for risk assets. However, it should be noted that the current 'peace expectations' are still in a highly uncertain stage. The terms proposed by Trump, including nuclear material handling, opening the Strait of Hormuz, and even "free oil," have not yet been officially confirmed by Iran, and Gulf countries and Europe generally believe that reaching an agreement will still take several months. This means that the current market is more like trading "optimistic expectations" rather than fundamental changes that have already been implemented. Once negotiations recur or conflicts escalate, energy prices and inflation expectations will quickly rebound, causing secondary fluctuations. Under this framework, the short-term pricing logic of the cryptocurrency market will become more complex. On the one hand, the expectation of a decline in inflation is conducive to lowering interest rates and improving the liquidity environment, which provides support for BTC; On the other hand, if inflation expectations rapidly decline, it will also weaken the marginal attractiveness of Bitcoin as an "anti inflation asset". This means that BTC is more likely to enter the stage of "internal switching of macro hedging attributes", shifting from a single anti inflation logic to a dual pricing driven by both liquidity and risk appetite. From a trading strategy perspective, it is currently not suitable to place heavy bets based on a single macro direction. The better solution is to maintain the core BTC position while paying attention to the volatility opportunities brought by event driven factors. If the situation in the Middle East continues to ease and oil prices fall, leading to a decline in interest rates, it may be considered to participate in the rebound of risk assets; On the contrary, if negotiations break down or conflicts escalate, we should be wary of the rapid market pullback caused by the rebound in energy and inflation expectations. Overall, the cryptocurrency market is in a critical transition period where geopolitical variables dominate short-term fluctuations and macro liquidity determines medium-term trends. Note: The content of this article is not investment advice and does not constitute an offer, solicitation, or recommendation for any investment product.