BTC Mid-Term Price Trend Analysis (Around April 22) April 22 marks the expiration of the US-Iran ceasefire agreement, which will impact Bitcoin's mid-term price trend: (1) Negotiation breakdown (bearish), probability 40-45%: Price drops below 73,600, testing 70,000-72,000. The previous rebound high of 78,300 has likely peaked. (2) Ceasefire extension (neutral), probability 35-40%: Price fluctuates in the 72,000-76,000 range, with a rebound high near 76,000. (3) Agreement reached (breakout), probability 15-20%: Price rebounds to 78,000-79,500, with a rebound high near 79,500. Personal judgment: Iran has already rejected negotiations, and the probability of a negotiation breakdown on April 22 is increasing. If negotiations fail, the 4th wave rebound is likely over, and the 5th wave downtrend may start earlier.