4.19 BitTiger Diary

Bears wiped out—are we starting to target bulls now? Yesterday, as Iran unilaterally continued to block the strait, $BTC seemed to hit its target (testing the real average price line across the network) and, along with the news, dropped back below its previous resistance level of 76k. Without any substantial agreements being signed, it seems the market has become immune to the back-and-forth rhetoric between the U.S. and Iran. Just sitting back and watching the show now. Another piece of news: KelpDAO suffered a hack, losing nearly $300 million. This further worsens the already scarce liquidity in the bear market, raising concerns about Aave. Sun Yuchen has already withdrawn his funds from Aave. You can criticize Sun Yuchen all you want, but you can’t deny his strong risk management awareness—those who know, know. Meanwhile, the largest short liquidation since October 11 occurred the night before last, meaning that most of the mid- to short-term bears have been wiped out. The market is likely to move in the direction of least resistance. Looking back at on-chain data (see attached chart), no bear market bottom has ever allowed losses to run for just four to five months and still be caught by bottom-fishers. Plus, the accumulation period hasn’t been long enough to support a three-year cycle of bullish momentum. Unless we stay in the 65k-78k range for the second half of the year, patience is still key. ✊✊ 75600