This world is just so fascinating—plot twists followed by more plot twists. Of course, this was all within expectations. Yesterday, I already mentioned that Iran's so-called 'permanent' lifting of sanctions was just talk. There are way too many conditions holding it back. And sure enough, in less than 24 hours, Iran announced again that because the U.S. hasn’t lifted its blockade on Iranian ports, they’ve re-sealed the Strait of Hormuz and even taken military action against passing ships. Next, there are probably three scenarios: 1. Trump *TACO* lifts the blockade on Iranian ports over the weekend, and oil prices will continue to drop on Monday. 2. Trump does nothing, and Iran doesn’t want to escalate either, so they just drag it out—but this probably won’t last too long. 3. Iran loses its temper and directly tears up the ceasefire agreement, though this is the least likely scenario. From a long-term perspective, neither the U.S. nor Iran wants to keep fighting, so while there might still be some back-and-forth, a long-term ceasefire and falling oil prices are highly probable. Of course, this doesn’t mean the market will start improving—there are still plenty of pitfalls ahead. Back to Bitcoin data: over the weekend, turnover rates continued to drop, and trading volume also declined. Although prices fluctuated a bit, overall, it’s all within a normal range. As I’ve said many times before, the current price increase reflects market expectations that the U.S. and Iran will ceasefire, U.S. inflation won’t keep rising, and a recession won’t happen. But this isn’t tied to the main economic conflict right now, which is monetary policy. Coming up, we’ve got three more 'exams': the Fed chair replacement, tariffs, and the midterm elections. Let’s keep watching Trump’s performance.