Polymarket 'Probability of Hormuz Strait Returning to Normal Before April 30' Drops to 30%, Down 24% in 24 Hours

Odaily Seer Prophet Channel monitoring shows that the Polymarket 'Probability of Hormuz Strait Returning to Normal Before April 30' has significantly dropped to 30%, down 24% in 24 hours. As of now, the trading volume for this event contract has exceeded $15.864 million. The rules for this event contract are as follows: If the International Monetary Fund Portwatch (IMF Portwatch) publishes the 7-day moving average of vessel arrivals at the Hormuz Strait ("vessel arrivals") equal to or greater than 60 on any date between the market creation and May 31, 2026, the market will be judged as "Yes"; otherwise, it will be judged as "No." The daily vessel arrivals include container ships, bulk carriers, roll-on/roll-off ships, general cargo ships, and oil tankers. Vessels not reported by the IMF Portwatch will not be considered. Due to the U.S. imposing a maritime blockade on Iran and making excessive demands during negotiations, Iran has not yet agreed to hold the next round of talks with the U.S. Iran has emphasized that the U.S. "avoiding excessive demands" is a key condition for continuing negotiations; otherwise, Iran is "unwilling to waste time on prolonged and meaningless talks." Several vessels attempted to pass through the Hormuz Strait but ultimately turned back. Maritime intelligence company "Tanker Trackers" posted on social media that two Indian ships attempting to cross the Hormuz Strait were forced to retreat by the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy, with gunfire reported during the incident. Odaily Seer Prophet Channel continues to monitor prediction markets, observing changes before pricing.