Next week's macro outlook: Gathering US Iran negotiations and personnel changes at the Federal Reserve, the Middle East situation repeatedly disturbs the market According to BlockBeats, on April 18th, the global market rebounded significantly in the past week driven by expectations of easing tensions in the Middle East, but the core uncertainty has not yet been lifted. Iran once announced the opening of the Strait of Hormuz, causing a rapid decline in oil prices and a comprehensive strengthening of risk assets. US stocks hit a new high, the US dollar weakened, and gold approached the $4900 mark. But then Iran released a signal that it was still under military control, coupled with the United States maintaining its blockade of Iran, and market concerns about the situation escalated. On a macro level, the biggest variable next week will still be the progress of the US Iran negotiations. US President Trump has stated that negotiations may advance over the weekend and that if an agreement is not reached by next Wednesday, the ceasefire may end and there is a risk of conflict resuming; However, Iran remains cautious in its attitude towards negotiations, especially on key issues such as uranium enrichment. The market has shifted from 'conflict escalation pricing' to 'mitigation path pricing', but any sudden changes may still trigger severe asset volatility. In terms of interest rate expectations, the decline in energy prices has eased inflationary pressures, and market expectations for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates this year have rebounded to about 60%. At the same time, Kevin Walsh, the nominee for Federal Reserve Chairman, will attend a Senate hearing next week, and his policy stance (especially whether he is dovish) will become an important variable affecting gold and risk assets. Tuesday 20:30, March retail sales monthly rate in the United States; At 20:30 on Thursday, the number of initial jobless claims in the United States for the week ending April 18th; At 21:45 on Thursday, the initial value of the S&P Global Manufacturing/Services PMI for April in the United States; At 22:00 on Friday, the final values of the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index and one-year inflation rate expectations for April in the United States; In the short term, the market will revolve around three major variables: progress in US Iran negotiations, oil price trends, and signals from the Federal Reserve's policies.