On the 50th day of the conflict, Iran finally announced full openness to all merchant ships. At the same time, the United States is considering unfreezing $20 billion in cash from Iran in exchange for enriched uranium. BTC quickly surged above 7.7w, and oil prices quickly fell to 80 Last night until today has been the fastest official news change since the US Iran conflict, Civil officials release doves, while military officials release eagles, but market sentiment has unilaterally declared victory in the war. In theory, the capital market can indeed indicate some future trends. On April 17th, about 20 merchant ships attempted to cross the strait, but the vast majority of them chose to stop and observe or turn around directly after approaching the strait. However, if most of the merchant ships pass smoothly today, it at least confirms the negotiation results of the safe navigation zone. Of course, the current strategic intentions of both Iran and the United States are very clear, and neither wants to immediately overturn the table, but both want to hold their chips in their hands. Setting aside some rumors of winning, both the United States and Iran have different sides: Tehran's goal is not to ignite World War III by completely sealing off the strait, as this would push all neutral countries into opposition. Iran explicitly binds the continued opening of the strait to the United States' compliance with ceasefire terms and continues to threaten the United States with global inflation. The current Strait of Hormuz is Iran's most crucial negotiating lever, demonstrating its absolute control over the global energy throat through conditional opening to the world. The White House maintains contacts through channels such as Pakistan, sending signals of promising negotiations to appease financial markets, while not easing secondary sanctions on Iranian ports and oil buyers. The goal of the United States is to use the economic noose to force Iran to make substantial concessions in deep-water areas such as nuclear agreements and war reparations without triggering a comprehensive regional war. In addition, there are significant differences between the two sides on core issues such as the suspension period of nuclear activities and the path to lifting sanctions, so the current peace is based on an unstable balance where neither side dares to bear the cost of complete loss of control. The logic behind the unilateral announcement of victory by the capital market is actually tied to oil prices themselves. The nominal relaxation of the strait will inevitably lead to a decline in international oil prices, and the expectation of a second rebound in global inflation will be forcefully suppressed. Then it returns to the expectation of betting on the Fed's resumption of interest rate cuts. This combo logic is indeed complete, but prolonged negotiation time will still lead to a resurgence in oil prices and BTC falling back to its starting point. The probability of this outcome is still high, as the US and Iran each have their own stalemate scenarios. The amplification effect of Trump's optimistic expectations has indirectly driven the market up. It is not uncommon to draw a big cake with political signals and leave the hard bones behind the scenes. However, most conservative institutions are well aware that as long as they still need to follow the designated route according to the IRGC's face, the global logistics system will not be able to operate with confidence, and the inflation crisis will not immediately disappear.