[UBS Believes Market Rate Hike Pricing Is Too Aggressive, Expects ECB Not to Rush Rate Hikes Before Year-End] Jin10 Data, April 17 – UBS research report indicates that despite the European Central Bank's (ECB) hawkish tone, the bank expects to maintain interest rates unchanged before the end of the year. ECB President Lagarde stated this week that rising energy costs have deviated the eurozone from the central bank's baseline scenario outlook, and the ECB is weighing its options. Given the ECB's inflation mandate and its forecast that the impact of the Iran conflict on inflation outweighs its impact on growth, current market pricing suggests the ECB will raise rates twice before year-end. However, the current economic backdrop is markedly different from the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict in 2022. The ECB's policy has only recently returned to a neutral stance, and the labor market has remained weak. Considering the risks posed by the conflict to growth prospects and the tightening financial conditions already evident in the bond market, we believe the ECB is unlikely to rush into rate hikes and will likely maintain interest rates unchanged before year-end.