Analyst: The market is not betting on a long-term closure of Hormuz or a third oil crisis BlockBeats News: On April 17th, Ryoji Musha, President of Musha Research in Japan, stated that the gap between the pessimistic sentiment reported by the media and the actual market behavior is too large to ignore. Since the outbreak of the Iran conflict on February 28th, the S&P 500 index has regained all lost ground and returned to a level only 1% below historical highs. Although the price of crude oil futures for delivery has remained high recently, the contract price for delivery six months later has fallen back to the $70 range. So, the market did not assume that the Strait of Hormuz would be closed for a long time, nor did it assume that a third oil crisis would occur. In addition, Musha pointed out that the world economy's dependence on crude oil is no longer as high as it was in the 1970s, and the proportion of oil in Japan's energy structure has decreased from 76% during the first oil crisis to 35% in 2024. Alternative routes such as oil pipelines in countries like Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates already exist, and the long-term closure of the Strait of Hormuz is not in line with Iran's own interests, as this strait is also the lifeline of Iran's trade. Japan is still vulnerable to the impact of rising import energy and transportation costs, but the trading mode of the market is no longer like a full-scale oil crisis. (Golden Ten)