Reply to a question on Weibo ➤ Has the Bitcoin trend reversed? I feel like I can't fall anymore. Before the last bear market and the computing power battle, almost everyone believed that 6000 was the iron bottom, including myself at the beginning, because as soon as it fell, it rebounded, and in the second half of the year, large funds gradually increased their buying at 6000. In the last bear market, most people believed that 30000 was an iron bottom, and there were also large funds buying at 30000. In this bear market, many people still believe that 60000 is the iron bottom. Do you think the big cycle bear market has ended so quickly? Do you think it's possible to reverse and go strong for the rest of this year? What is the likelihood? There are only three possibilities for the market, one is to reverse and go bullish; A type of oscillation that has been based on 60000 until the third and fourth quarters; One is that the current oscillation range based on 60000 will be broken down in the future and enter the next platform. I still hold the previous viewpoint. Firstly, I think the first possibility is very unlikely, so there are only the second and third possibilities left. I am more inclined towards the third possibility being greater than the second possibility being greater than the first possibility. What should I do if someone asks the wrong question at this point? Whether it's the second or third option, it takes time, so we can wait. When the time comes, whether it's the next platform or still on this platform, we can layout it. Some people may still ask, what is the first possibility? Then don't ask me (~ェ~;), people who always think about small probabilities and what if in the face of big trends have mediocre investment results. For example, what if 2018 wasn't a bear market? For example, what if 2022 is not a bear market? For example, what if there is no block halving market? Wait. .. If you are still afraid, then choose what you are not afraid of. Don't worry about buying in case of a bull market, and what if it continues? Anyway, you're worried about both the bull and bear, so it's better to work hard To be honest, people who are always worried cannot make good investments. Even if someone gives you a definite answer, whether it's a bull or a bear, you will always think of another answer. The above are all layout issues related to trend cycles and do not involve short-term trading at present.