qinbafrank
qinbafrank|Apr 16, 2026 12:45
Let's talk about Robinhood's long-term and current perspectives (long-term in wealth management, current in predicting the market). At the beginning of this month, the US Treasury Department selected Bank of New York Mellon and Robinhood to participate in the Trump Account Plan to help manage and operate the children's savings/investment program. At that time, it was said that this was the turning point for Robinwood to surpass Jiaxin Wealth Management in the future, which was actually what Vald Tenev had always wanted to do and become the preferred platform for wealth management of Generation Z. If you look at the past few financial conference calls, you can clearly feel the strength of Hood in wealth management. Vald really wants to completely devour Generation Z users. The key to wealth management at HOOD is to grow together with users. According to the distribution of age groups and wealth levels among Americans, the average age of HOOD users is 30 years old, with an average asset of $10000 per user. IBKR and Jiaxin Wealth Management have an average asset value of $150000 per user, while Jiaxin's users have an average age of 45 and 65% of their income comes from wealth management. As long as HOOD captures the current group of users, with their natural jump in wealth growth, the platform's per capita assets will at least triple when the average age of these users is 35. Not to mention the acquisition of HOOD Internet for young people. In the past three years, the user asset size on the Hood platform has increased from $60 billion to the latest $330 billion, while the user asset size of Interactive Brokers has increased from over $400 billion to over $700 billion during the same period. The volume is still smaller than that of Yingtong, but the growth rate is faster. But this is a long-term strategy that requires time and the growth of Generation Z users. So what is the short-term core? Naturally, it's about predicting market business You can see how Hood predicts the outbreak of market business: 1) First, let's take a look at the business volume The trading volume of Q3 event contracts in 2025 was 2.3 billion, and by Q4 of 2025, the trading volume of event contracts had increased to 8.5 billion, a month on month increase of 300%. 12 billion event contract transactions over the course of 25 years In January 26, the monthly trading volume of event contracts was 3.4 billion, with a rapid growth rate 2) Looking at the revenue forecast for the market again In the fourth quarter of the year, Other trading revenue reached $147 million ($147M), a year-on-year surge of over 300%, mainly driven by forecast markets. Annual revenue, approximately 115 million US dollars in Q3 of 2015, jumped to approximately 435 million US dollars in Q4. Last year's Q4 forecast showed that the market business had already contributed 10% of the total net revenue. It is estimated that the proportion will be higher in the first quarter of this year Vlad Tenev said that this song is the fastest growing business in Robinwood's history, and Hood management believes that it is just the beginning of a 'super cycle'. More importantly, Robinwood's prediction market business has expanded from elections/political events to sports, player contracts, combination betting, and plans to establish a CFTC licensed exchange through a joint venture company (Rothera LLC) to further independence of the prediction market (currently relying on Kalshi's cooperation). The self built prediction market is expected to be launched from the second quarter to the second half of the year. More importantly, the US Canada Mexico World Cup in the second quarter. There is no doubt that the market as a whole will become more prosperous. Simply put, the predicted market trading volume for Q4 2025 is 8.5 billion transactions per quarter, with an annualized revenue of nearly 435 million, far exceeding previous quarters. This is a landmark growth point for Robinhood's transition from a "retail brokerage" to a comprehensive platform. At the beginning of the month, obtaining authorization from the Treasury Department to manage Trump's account plan was a solid step for Hood to become the preferred wealth management platform for Generation Z. Every generation has their own "Jiaxin Wealth Management", and Generation Z will undoubtedly be the hood.
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