The Bank of Japan is highly likely to raise interest rates this quarter, and there is still controversy over whether to take action in April or June On April 16th, according to a Reuters survey, nearly two-thirds of economists predicted that the Bank of Japan would raise its benchmark interest rate to 1% by the end of June. Under the uncertainty brought about by the Iran War, the market believes that the possibility of raising interest rates this month or in June is basically equivalent. Economists still generally expect the Bank of Japan to tighten policy again this quarter, a view that has remained largely unchanged since the US Israel war on Iran on February 28th. If there is any impact, it is that this conflict has intensified market concerns about rising energy prices, renewed inflationary pressures, and further weakening of the yen, thereby strengthening hawkish expectations of interest rate hikes. In a survey conducted from April 7-14, 46 out of 71 economists (65%) predicted that the policy interest rate would rise to 1% by the end of June, higher than the 60% surveyed in March and the 58% surveyed in February. Among the 40 economists who provided clear timing judgments, 38% chose April and 35% chose June. In last month's survey, the proportion supporting a rate hike in June was the highest, at 32%, 30% in July, and 27% in April. After June, the median forecast shows that the Bank of Japan will raise its borrowing costs to 1.25% in the fourth quarter, slightly earlier than previously expected. The median forecast also shows that the Bank of Japan will raise interest rates by another 25 basis points to 1.50% in the third quarter of 2027, and then maintain the rate until the end of the year, although a few institutions expect it to rise to 1.75%. (Golden Ten)