Arthur Hayes: Crypto Market Enters 'No-Trade Zone,' AI Job Losses and Hormuz Tensions Are Key Variables BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes shared in his latest article that the crypto market is currently in a 'no-trade zone,' with his fund Maelstrom making almost no moves in Q1. Hayes highlighted two major variables: 1. AI agents will massively replace white-collar jobs in developed economies, triggering a deflationary financial collapse that could be more destructive than the 2008 subprime crisis. Related consumer credit defaults have already started climbing ahead of the wave of layoffs. 2. The ongoing tensions in the Strait of Hormuz amid U.S.-Iran conflict. He ruled out nuclear annihilation scenarios and focused on three potential paths: the war ends but AI-driven economic shocks persist; Iran gains control of the strait, forcing countries to sell dollars to buy gold and yuan, shaking the petrodollar system; or the U.S. uses military force to eliminate Iran, leading to Gulf energy production halts and global inflation. On asset outlook, Hayes believes Bitcoin's value is anchored to the total supply of fiat currencies rather than its price. If central banks expand their balance sheets while raising interest rates, fixed-supply assets like Bitcoin and gold will benefit. However, until the Fed explicitly signals liquidity injection, he predicts Bitcoin will only rebound to $80K-$90K at most. For now, he's only increasing holdings in gold and Hyperliquid governance token $HYPE.