qinbafrank|Apr 15, 2026 13:31
ASML's first quarter report was better than expected across the board: net sales of 8.77 billion euros, net profit of 2.76 billion euros, and gross profit margin of 53%, all exceeding market expectations. At the same time, the company has raised its annual net sales guidance to 36 billion to 40 billion euros.
However, the Q2 guidance has become a short-term pressure source for stock prices - the median sales revenue is about 8.7 billion euros, lower than the market expectation of 9.07 billion euros, and the gross profit margin has also declined month on month. This weak short-term guidance led to a drop of over 2% in the stock price before and after the market.
Another typical scenario of exceeding expectations in performance, but with weak guidance and a slight market plunge.
The market actually cares about three longer-term issues:
Is the improvement of non EUV business a short-term replenishment or a cyclical turning point?
Can the expansion of storage production be sustained?
How much room for maneuvering after tightening export restrictions?
During the conference call, the management provided clear answers one by one. Key points of the phone conference:
1) The annual guidelines have been revised and export controls have been included. The company has raised its annual net sales forecast to 36 billion to 40 billion euros. The management has clearly stated that this guidance range already includes the potential impact of export control uncertainty.
2) The storage customer's production capacity will be sold out by 2026. The customer has explicitly stated that all production capacity for 2026 has been sold out, and the supply shortage will continue beyond 2026. The large demand is supported by long-term commitments from downstream customers.
3) Reverse demand for non EUV business. Previously, it was expected that non EUV business would remain unchanged from last year, but now it has been raised to growth. The demand for submerged DUVs has reversed after a significant decline in 2025, and sales are expected to approach last year's levels this year.
4) In terms of technical roadmap, High NA reduces mask reduction steps. According to customer reports, High NA can reduce EUV masks from 3 to 1, compress process steps from 100 to 10, and cover 3 to 4 future process nodes. The 1000 watt light source ensures that Low NA can be extended until 2031.
5) Clear production capacity targets. At least 60 units of Low NA EUV will be shipped in 2026, and at least 80 units will be shipped in 2027.
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