THE WAR IN IRAN IS ALREADY OVER. At least, that's how the markets are pricing it. The negotiations broke down over the weekend. 21 hours. No deal. Scary headlines. And the S&P 500 is 2% from all-time highs. The market is telling you something the news won't. Because both sides walking away wasn't a breakdown. That's how every negotiation starts. You walk in with extreme demands. You anchor the other side. Then you walk away to assert power. USA: zero enrichment, zero tolls, zero reparations. Iran: keep enrichment, $2M per ship through the Strait, full sanctions lifted. Both sides anchored hard. Both sides walked away. Both sides left the door open. That's round one. But here's the part nobody is talking about. The last time the world had a supply shock this big, the Fed had one move. February 2020: Fed balance sheet = $4.2 trillion By 2022: $8.9 trillion They doubled the money supply in under two years. Rates cut to zero overnight. They printed into the crisis. That playbook didn't start with COVID. Vietnam. WW2. Every time there's a war and a supply shock, they are forced to print. And the conditions today look identical. I break down the 2 scenarios for how this ends and what it means for oil, markets, and Bitcoin in today's video. [link in comments](Ran Neuner)