Haotian
Haotian|4月 15, 2026 09:36
These days I have nothing to do, and I have roughly studied the impact of quantum computers on the blockchain ecosystem, involving a lot of background knowledge in cryptography. Without going into too many details, I would like to share a few viewpoints: 1) In the past, it was widely recognized in academia that cracking a 256 bit elliptic curve encryption algorithm would require millions of physical qubits and around 6000 logical qubits. However, the new paper published by Google did not introduce any groundbreaking hardware, but only recompiled the Shor's algorithm's execution method on quantum circuits, compressing the required logical qubits to 1200. What concept? This means that the cost of computing power has been directly reduced by nearly 20 times. This is the fundamental reason why quantum threat theory has been hotly discussed this time. What we used to think was absolutely impossible has now begun to have a "countdown"; 2) Google's countdown to this time point is 2029, which means that before this time point, including the Internet's HTTPS, SSL bank certificate, SSH remote login and other encryption methods, as well as the underlying ECDSA signature system of the public chain such as BTC and Ethereum, must complete a "quantum resistant" blood exchange, otherwise there may be a disaster. Regarding this point, 2029, which is only three years away, I think it is too exaggerated. After all, there is still a long way to go from pure theory to practical implementation. However, it at least shows that the time window for upgrading encryption algorithms to resist quantum attacks has begun to open, which is not urgent, but we must not take it lightly; 3) If at this point, many people still have no concept of quantum threats, then we can further elaborate on a few attack surfaces: 1. At present, there are approximately 25% -35% of addresses on the BTC chain, and their public keys are already exposed, including early addresses in the P2PK format used during the Satoshi era, as well as all addresses that have been reused or transferred, all of which are within the scope of attacks; And for other addresses that have not undergone transfer, as long as the transfer is initiated after the quantum computer matures, within 10 minutes of processing transactions in Mempool, it is enough to be preemptively intercepted by quantum cracking attacks, which is equivalent to the entire network being paralyzed; 2. The crisis faced by Ethereum is more direct. When the EOA account of ETH sends a transaction for the first time, the public key will be exposed on the chain through signature, coupled with the data availability sampling mechanism after EIP-4844 and the consensus network that relies on POS signature verification. The Ethereum public chain is not facing the problem of whether the private key can be cracked, but once the signature algorithm cannot be upgraded, the entire network becomes virtually useless; 3. The key is that since the transaction history of blockchain is traceable and permanently stored on the chain, even though the conditions for quantum computer attacks are not yet mature, transactions that have exposed public keys on the chain in the past and today will be recorded and become potential targets of attacks, waiting for quantum machines to slowly take place. 4) Of course, since there is still a technological breakthrough and a time window for quantum attacks, theoretically, as long as the "anti quantum attack" major overhaul is completed in the next few years, self rescue can also be achieved. Ethereum has long been making "engineering" optimizations to resist quantum threats, including advancing account abstraction to allow EOA addresses to directly switch signature schemes at the application level, and verifier signatures to be strengthened from the underlying structure to resist quantum attacks using the PQC encryption algorithm (Post Quantum Cryptography, a new generation of encryption standards designed specifically to resist quantum attacks). The most impressive feature of Ethereum itself is its dynamic upgrade feature of "refueling while in flight". Since the direction is clear, the quantum resistance is only a matter of time. Bitcoin has chosen to introduce BIP-360, which will introduce post quantum signature algorithms such as FALCON or CRYSTALS Dilithium. The technology is not complicated, but it is difficult to establish consensus. It should be noted that the Bitcoin community once argued for several years over a block size fork, hoping that they would quickly compromise on quantum hard forks, which is difficult to be optimistic about. But once the threat becomes more certain, even the Buddhist development community will grit their teeth on this self-help patch. The above. Finally, it is interesting to say that Google used zero knowledge to prove that ZK disclosed this potential quantum threat, and consciously made it "soft landing" at the beginning. After all, once it gets out of control, let alone the blockchain, Internet civilization is devastating. In addition, researchers from the Ethereum Foundation are involved in the Google Quantum AI team, and it is unknown whether resistance to quantum attacks will become a mainstream narrative in blockchain links. After all, natural genes are cryptographic technology, and this new mission is very Crypto!
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