Xiao Bao Community Live: US Iran Talks vs. Tax Selling Pressure, Who Will Lead Today's Market?

Click on the link to enter the meeting: https://meeting.tencent.com/p/7277739262 Today (April 15th), the news in the cryptocurrency industry showed a mixed pattern of long and short positions: the expected warming of the US Iran peace talks pushed Bitcoin to break through $76000 at one point, but the potential selling pressure of $2.8 billion brought by the US tax deadline is still hanging above our heads, and the market is in a critical game period. Here is today's complete disassembly: Market situation: Driven by geopolitical sentiment, rising and then consolidating ·Market performance: Stimulated by favorable negotiations between the US and Iran, BTC rose over 5% within 24 hours, reaching a new high of $76120 since February 6th. ·Current price: Currently reported at around $74508, the market is digesting the gains and testing key support levels. ·Short position collapse: The sharp rise led to the forced liquidation of approximately $500 million in short positions across the entire network. Long Short Game: Two Core Forces Pulling Together The current market is on the "balance sheet" of news, with two opposing forces: Bullish factors (multi-party): ·Geopolitical easing: The US and Iran plan to have direct talks again on the 16th, and the market is betting that the conflict will cool down, oil prices will fall, and risk asset preferences will be boosted. ·Institutional clearance: Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) invested $1 billion to increase its holdings of approximately 13900 BTC; Goldman Sachs has also applied to launch a Bitcoin Yield ETF. ·On chain activity: The daily trading volume of Bitcoin has increased by 62% this year, and on chain demand is strengthening. Bearish factor (bearish): ·Tax reporting selling pressure: Today is the deadline for tax reporting in the United States, and it is expected that there will be a maximum selling pressure of $2.8 billion (tax payment realization), which is the main bearish trend at present. ·Pessimism among retail investors: Although market sentiment has recovered, funding rates have been negative for 46 consecutive days, and retail investors have not followed suit, lacking a "trend following market". ·The situation is fluctuating: Although expectations are positive, the formal agreement has not yet been implemented. If negotiations change, the market may quickly reverse. Trend prediction: The opening of the US stock market tonight is crucial Currently, BTC is in a volatile range of $74200-76000, waiting for direction to be chosen. ·Breakthrough scenario (bullish): If the volume stabilizes above $76000, it will confirm strength and is expected to rise to $78000-80000, or even impact $89000. ·Retracement scenario (bearish): If there is no breakthrough or tax selling pressure appears, attention should be paid to the support of $73800-74200. If it falls below this point, it may retrace to $72000 or even $70000. Risk Warning: The trend of the US stock market after opening tonight will give a clearer signal. The current long short game is intense, please pay attention to controlling leverage. How to trade the current market and how to use indicators are being explained in the live broadcast room Disclaimer: The above content only represents the author's personal opinion and is intended to assist investors in understanding information related to the capital market. It does not constitute any investment advice and does not represent the position or viewpoint of AiCoin. The market is risky and investments should be made with caution.