Just as I estimated yesterday, last night when BTC rebounded to $76,000, BRS returned to zero. Although it has moved away a bit now (around 5), this confirms one thing: as long as BTC's price is above $76,000, BRS will inevitably return to 0. BRS=0 means two things: 1. During a bull-to-bear transition, it marks a phase-top range. 2. During a bear-to-bull transition, it signals the start of a trend. For example, on January 14, when BTC rebounded to $97,000 and BRS returned to 0, we judged that it was likely a bull-to-bear period, making it the peak of the rebound. So, the question becomes simple: you just need to determine whether we are currently in the "bear-to-bull" phase. If yes, then a strong trend is likely to follow. If not, then $76,000 or above is the peak of this rebound. The higher it goes, the greater the pressure and the stronger the need for a pullback. ---------------------------------- The above is data analysis and interpretation. Below is my personal opinion (for reference only): Personally, based on the current data, I think the latter scenario is more likely—that we’ve already entered a phase-top range. From my observation, this rebound is not only influenced by macro events but is also closely related to futures negative funding rates and options Gamma squeezes. However, spot demand hasn’t risen in tandem. During the rebound, two key data points haven’t shown significant changes: 1. Momentum buyers haven’t actively followed through during the rebound, indicating that overall sentiment remains cautious and lacks sustained support. 2. The number of new active addresses (addresses interacting with BTC for the first time in the past 30 days with a non-zero balance) hasn’t shown a clear upward trend. There’s one potential condition for change: if BTC can break above 81k and hold without falling below on a retest, then I would consider the probability of the former scenario (trend reversal) to be higher. 81k is the average cost for short-term holders. When short-term positions approach breakeven, it often triggers selling. A price breakout would signify a rebuilding of confidence, which would require a shift in perspective. At least for now, I subjectively believe this is a low-probability scenario.