Tom Lee: The Net Effect of War on the U.S. Economy is Positive, Market Already Pricing in Favorable Outcomes

BlockBeats News, April 15 — Tom Lee, Chairman of Ethereum treasury company BitMine, stated in an interview with CNBC, "The stock market remains resilient because, even in the face of war, the economy is actually performing better than expected." He noted that current defense spending is approximately $30 billion per month and could rise to $60 billion per month in the future, providing significant economic stimulus. Meanwhile, a $20 increase in oil prices only adds about $12 billion in monthly burden to households. "Overall, war is currently helping corporate profits." Tom Lee cited historical precedents, saying, "Looking back at World War II, the stock market bottomed in May 1942, just five months after the U.S. entered the war, even though no American troops had yet set foot on European or Pacific battlefields." He believes, "The market is very good at pricing in outcomes in advance. The current stock market rally indicates that the market is pricing in a favorable conclusion. While I can't pinpoint the exact reasons, this is the signal conveyed by market behavior." Regarding the three major variables in the current market — the Iran war, corporate earnings, and interest rates — Tom Lee stated, "Among the three, only war can create tail events in both directions, making it the most critical variable to monitor closely." In terms of sector allocation, he remains bullish on the energy sector and emphasized that energy security is one of the most important structural themes in recent years.