qinbafrank|4月 14, 2026 02:50
The dispute over the nuclear issue between the United States and Iran is actually closer than it appears publicly, and the ball is already at Iran's feet. Last night, Axios reported on what neither side of the Cerna Hotel had publicly disclosed: the United States proposed a 20-year suspension of uranium enrichment: not permanent zero enrichment, nor permanent dismantling of all capabilities, but a 20-year suspension.
Vance said Iran has rejected a clear commitment not to seek nuclear weapons. The actual proposal from the United States is a 20-year suspension, a time limited freeze, rather than a permanent ban. Iranian Foreign Minister Alaghchi said that Iran is "just one step away from the Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding" before encountering constantly changing target lines.
A feasible framework emerged from the negotiations between the two parties: a time limited freeze lasting for several years, recognition of limited enrichment, and strict monitoring. The structure proposed by the United States is exactly this, lasting for 20 years. The gap that led to the collapse of the Islamabad talks is not the gap between zero enrichment and enrichment rights:
But rather the gap between the 20 years that the United States hopes for and the shorter period that Iran is willing to accept (several years).
Vance said yesterday that whether the US Iran talks can continue depends on Iran's next steps. They cannot reach an agreement and must return to Tehran to seek approval from the Supreme Leader or others.
Yesterday, during a phone call with French President Macron, Iranian President Pezehezhian stated that Iran is willing to continue negotiations with the US within the framework of international law and will abide by the ceasefire terms. Previously, the US's "excessive ambition" had hindered the agreement from being reached.
As for Iran's pursuit of control over the Strait of Hormuz, the US dollar began blocking Iran's coastline last night, prohibiting ships from entering and leaving Iranian ports, partly to cut off Iran's lifeline. On the other hand, it is also to obtain the same hand as Iran in the Strait of Hormuz: if you want to control the strait, I will control your coastline.
This blockade can actually greatly weaken Iran's control over the Strait of Hormuz.
The nuclear issue and the issue of control over the strait should be the focus of negotiations, while other points such as the withdrawal of the United States from the Middle East and the issue of regional proxies are all chips used by both sides to play games with each other.
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