I slept up early last night and didn't watch the follow-up news. Just now, I saw that the oil price had dropped so much, which really verified my judgment. That is to say, Trump's blockade of the strait is totally out of the technical enforceability, and it is likely that it is still manipulating market expectations. After all, he has no reason to support high oil prices on the main line of the election, as evidenced by his efforts in the past few weeks to suppress Israel's destruction of oil and gas facilities. So this news can interpret many signals of easing the situation 1. Previously, we did discuss the issue of suspending uranium enrichment, and the only difference was the duration. This is much milder than what the outside world once thought was an irreconcilable contradiction 2. Trump said that 34 ships crossed the strait yesterday, which I can't confirm at present, but it's good news for the market in general 3. Trump continued to say that there was a phone call from Iran, and I can't confirm this information. I think it's Trump's winning publicity, but it still plays a role in suppressing oil prices 4. A typical carrot and stick, while saying they are still in talks and absolutely not allowed to possess nuclear weapons, they also say that if the other side provokes, they will use new tactics. Obviously, it indicates an attitude that although we are talking, we have not relaxed our vigilance and the bottom line is still unbreakable. After Pakistan, Russian media also reported that there will be a second round of negotiations on the 16th. Continuing to exert a suppressive effect on oil prices. With this combination of punches, the oil price smoothly went from 105 to 95. However, it should be noted that the oil price jumped yesterday because of the blockade of the Straits, and today because of the easing of the situation, it may continue to jump a few days later because the second round of talks is not smooth. After all, there are many contradictions between the United States and Iraq. After all, this is a world where Trump can manipulate expectations by randomly selecting news that is in his favor. If we look at the real physical world, the underlying contradiction between supply and demand of oil prices has not yet been resolved. Instead, we can start laying out more orders near the low level. One day, after verbally adjusting expectations beyond the rigid limit, it may jump directly to 140% of spot oil prices (slightly exaggerated)