Economists at the Dallas Fed try to model the effects on PCE inflation of a one-, two-, or three-quarter disruption of oil shipping through the Strait of Hormuz The DSGE model projects WTI prices peaking at $110, $132, or $167 per barrel depending on the length of the closure "If the closure is over after one quarter, the effect on core inflation reaches 0.8 percentage points at an annualized rate in April 2026, followed by oscillating responses of diminishing amplitude. At the other extreme, if the closure persists for three quarters, the effect on core PCE inflation remains positive for the remainder of 2026, reaching as high as 0.8 percentage points as late as September 2026." https://www.dallasfed.org/~/media/documents/research/papers/2026/wp2609.pdf(Nick Timiraos)