Bitcoin Short term Market Analysis Express: The price quickly surged to around 74880, what's next? Dear friends, today the Bitcoin price broke through the Fibonacci uptrend channel at 0.618 and quickly surged to around $74880. The rebound momentum is quite strong and fast, which is a bit beyond expectations. What is the reason for the rapid rebound in the past two days? Triple positive combination: ETF inflows of $1.1 billion per week (the largest since January), on chain fund inflows turning positive for the first time, and the upcoming release of tax pressure on April 15th. But don't be carried away by this yang thread. 74500-75000 is a strong resistance zone, and after breaking through $75000, the next strong resistance level is around 76500 at the 0.786 position of the Fibonacci channel, which is also the selling wall on the order book. The price has arrived here, don't chase after it too much. 1、 Current market From the 4-hour candlestick chart, the price opened at 73272 and reached a high of 74880. With the increase in trading volume, the bullish volume at the 4-hour level has strengthened, which is slightly higher than the previous days, but still far from reaching the main volume level. The K-line begins to show an upper shadow, indicating an increase in selling pressure above. 2、 Why did the price of Bitcoin rise to around 74500 Firstly, ETF funds have experienced the largest weekly inflow since January. As of the week ending April 10th, the net inflow of digital asset investment products was $1.1 billion, with Bitcoin alone accounting for $871 million, the largest weekly inflow since January this year. Institutional funds are accelerating their return. Secondly, the inflow of on chain funds has turned positive for the first time since January. Analyst Willy Woo pointed out that the funds flowing into Bitcoin have just turned positive, marking the first time since January that liquidity is recovering. Thirdly, the pressure of the US tax period is about to be released. April 15th is the deadline for IRS tax reporting, and analysts estimate that approximately $2.8 billion in cryptocurrency selling pressure is concentrated in this window. Once the tax period pressure passes, the market may experience a rebound. The triple positive combination explains why the price was able to quickly rise from 70500 to around 74880 US dollars. 3、 Why is the range of 74500-75000 a strong resistance area Firstly, the order book sells under pressure. There is a thick sell wall in the range of 74000-75000, which is the area where the main bearish forces are deployed. The closer the price is to this area, the heavier the selling pressure. Secondly, the 0.618 position of the Fibonacci Channel. From the Fibonacci channel, the 0.618 position is exactly around 74500, which is the strong gravitational potential in natural trading theory. Thirdly, there is a high concentration of short liquidity. There is a short position of approximately $6 billion in the range of 72200-73500. If the price continues to rise, these short positions may be forced to close, forming a 'short squeeze' that pushes the price to 76000-80000. But 74500-75000 is an important defense line for the bearish main force. Of course, the defense line may also be breached, and the price may continue to rebound to around 0.786, which is around 76500. 4、 Regarding the ceasefire between the United States and Iran On the early morning of April 8th, Meida became a two-week two-way ceasefire that will expire around April 22nd. The gap in core demands between the two sides is huge, and the two-week time window is not enough to reach a structural agreement. I provide three scenario simulations: -Optimistic scenario (reaching a peace agreement): Bitcoin price surges below 85000 yuan; This probability is extremely low; -Benchmark scenario (new agreement reached before April 22): Short squeeze pushes Bitcoin up to $76000-80000 -Pessimistic scenario (ceasefire rupture): Bitcoin falls below 70000 support, looking down at 65000 or even 55000-60000 US dollars The expiration of the ceasefire on April 22nd is the biggest short-term geopolitical variable. 5、 Comprehensive judgment Short term (April 15-18): Prices are likely to fluctuate within the range of 73500-75000, waiting for the release of tax period pressure on April 15. Mid line (around April 22): April 18-22 is the highest probability time window for the end of the fourth wave and the opening of the fifth wave. It is estimated that the rebound high point is likely in the range of 74500-76000, with 79500 being a low probability event. Turn the steering downwards. Dear friends, don't chase long in the short term. When the retracement reaches around 73500, you can take a long position in Bitcoin with a light position. The take profit price is around 76500, and it is important to set a stop loss. Our trend goal is still to wait for major changes around April 22nd to lay out mid line short positions. Let the bullets continue to fly for a while, and the outcome will be announced on April 22nd.