Watching BTC tonight, I'm leaning towards cautious short-term moves, expecting more of a choppy downward trend. Over the past 24 hours, the biggest factor affecting the market has been the ongoing Middle East tensions. After U.S.-Iran negotiations broke down, the U.S. is preparing to block the Strait of Hormuz, pushing oil prices back above $100. Global risk asset sentiment has clearly weakened, and the stronger dollar isn't good news for high-volatility assets like BTC. On the other hand, the crypto space isn't entirely lacking positive news. Kraken secured access to the Fed's payment system, and the market continues to bet on the progress of the Clarity Act. Plus, spot ETFs saw significant net inflows last week, indicating institutional funds haven't pulled out yet. The issue is that macro pressures are hitting harder. If U.S. stocks remain weak tonight, BTC is likely to stay under pressure. My take is that short-term movement will lean bearish, but not in a one-sided crash—more like a pullback for consolidation. As long as there’s no further escalation in geopolitical tensions, any dip might still attract buyers.