🚨 US-IRAN PEACE TALKS COLLAPSED, HORMUZ BLOCKADE STARTS TODAY 21 hours of negotiations in Islamabad resulted in zero agreement Vance flew home empty-handed Trump's response: US Navy blockade of the Strait of Hormuz starting 10 AM ET today Market already starting to price this in: - WTI surged 8% to $105/barrel - Brent above $102 - BTC slipped to $71K, down 2.6% - Fear & Greed dropped from greed to neutral (43) This changes everything for the week ahead March CPI already came in hot - 3.3% YoY, 0.9% m/m Oil was the driver and now it's about to spike again Rate cuts just got delayed even further Here's how this may play out: SOFT OUTCOME (low probability): > Backchannel talks resume before April 22 ceasefire expiration > Markets stabilize after initial shock ESCALATION (high probability): > Blockade continues, oil stays above $100 > Inflation expectations spike > FED stays hawkish > Risk assets bleed HARD BREAK (tail risk): > Full military escalation > Oil reprices violently > Bonds sell off > Liquidity crisis across all markets For BTC specifically: Support at $70K -> key level to watch Hold it = we survive this as noise Lose it = retest $65K, possibly even $60K $74K-$76K resistance becomes even harder to break with this macro backdrop 3 things to watch this week: 1. Oil -> if WTI holds above $100, everything else follows 2. Bond yields -> aggressive selling = liquidity tightening 3. April 22 -> ceasefire expiration date Don't fight the macro and be patient Follow + notifs on, I will keep you updated(Leviathan)