The lotus bud has just begun to show its sharp tip, and a dragonfly has already landed on it? Back on March 22, ACVR (red line) was just starting to turn upward. But now, it’s clear that the “sharp tip” from back then has obviously “grown longer.” It’s pretty much confirmed that this trend won’t easily reverse. The decline in the indicator measures the proportion of time in history when the average unrealized loss of chips was more severe. The lower it goes, the closer it gets to the extreme. Therefore, the bottom of every bear market always appears during the decline of ACVR, not during its rise (after which comes the bear-to-bull transition period). This means one thing is almost certain — the bottom is getting closer and closer to us! But this “close” is relative to the previous “far,” not “right now.” Judging by the distance, there’s still some time left for us to make decisions and take action. The most critical thing for us next is to determine whether 6w is the bottom of this bear market. This indicator is like a countdown alarm clock, constantly reminding us to prepare in advance: What will you do if 6w is the bottom? And what’s your plan if it breaks below 6w? There’s no need to “preset a path.” If you’ve planned ahead, whether there’s one last shakeout or not doesn’t really matter that much. Don’t you think?