Trump took the initiative. Is it a trick for the United States to block the passage of ships paying for Iran through the strait? Just now, Trump said in a text that the US Iran talks were going well, and most of the topics reached consensus, but the only really important nuclear issue was not settled. Immediately, the US Navy will begin imposing a blockade on any vessel attempting to enter or exit the Strait of Hormuz. Also ordered the US Navy to search and intercept every vessel that has paid "tolls" to Iran in international waters. Anyone who pays such illegal tolls will not be able to obtain safe passage on the high seas. Ships that pay tolls to Iran are not allowed to pass, and naturally, Iranian ships and Iran's "shadow fleet" are also not allowed to pass. Equivalent to two blockade lines in the Strait of Hormuz and the Sea of Oman now In fact, the proposal that the US military also blockade the Strait came from an article entitled "If Iran refuses to give in, the President's ace in the hand is: maritime blockade" forwarded by Trump. In the article, Rebecca Grant, a national security expert at Lexington Institute, said that the US navy is fully capable of controlling the passage of the Strait of Hormuz at present. She added that if Iran takes a tough stance, the US military can deploy a powerful maritime surveillance force to monitor all ships entering and leaving the strait. "At that time, any passage through the narrow waterway near Halger Island or Oman will require permission from the US side. Here we would like to specifically mention the Kingston Institute, a center right think tank headquartered in Arlington, Virginia, primarily focused on defense and national security policy. It is considered a familiar face in the Washington defense policy community, The article quotes retired US General Jack Keane (retired four-star general, commander of the 101st Airborne Division, and former Deputy Chief of Staff of the US Army) as saying that if war were to reignite, the US military could choose to occupy or destroy the island of Kharg after fully weakening Iran's remaining military forces. In addition, the US Navy can also set up blockades to cut off Tehran's oil export lifeline. In fact, the United States has previously used a similar maritime blockade to deal with the Maduro regime in Venezuela, successfully weakening its oil revenue. Now the breakdown of negotiations and blockade can serve as a "trump card" to avoid direct large-scale bombing and pressure Iran and its allies. From a personal perspective, it is a clever move, and the beauty lies in: 1) Avoiding the escalation of the situation There is no need to bomb Iran's infrastructure, so Iran has no reason to bomb the infrastructure of Gulf countries. Iran's retaliation will suffer from its Middle Eastern allies of the United States; 2) Cut off the lifeline of Iran If a successful blockade can be achieved, it is actually equivalent to cutting off Iran's biggest economic source and lifeline to a large extent, which can force Iran to return to the negotiating table and lower its own conditions. Of course, for the market, there is no need to worry about further escalation of the situation in the short term. However, the downside is that the Strait of Hormuz is now tightly sealed, and it is expected to soar tomorrow, putting pressure on risk assets in the short term. Now it really depends on how long Iran's economic foundation can withstand.