pepper 花椒 (赚钱版)
pepper 花椒 (赚钱版)|4月 12, 2026 12:01
There was an old man on WSB who lost $100000 on Energy Fuels and then decided to integrate into Microsoft. His logic is that Microsoft has fallen the most this year in Mag 7, so it is undervalued. The reasons for Microsoft's decline this year are very specific. The overall software stocks are collapsing. IGV has fallen 21% this year. The SaaS sector is even worse off, falling nearly 40%. As the world's largest enterprise software company, Microsoft's stock price is tied to the fate of SaaS. AI is eating up the market for traditional software -40% of IT budgets are shifting from SaaS subscriptions to AI agent platforms and large model token consumption. Microsoft is also working on AI. Copilot, Azure OpenAI, GitHub Copilot - it's eating its own food at the same time. The question is: Can the new revenue brought by AI cover the revenue eroded by traditional software? In the short term, the answer is not enough. The WSB style 'buy the bottom when it falls too much' has a certain margin of safety for companies at the Mag 7 level. Microsoft is not UUUU, it will not reset to zero. But the mentality of wanting to turn things around all in, from losing 100000 yuan, is itself a dangerous signal. Losing 100000 and then listing the stock with the most significant drop is not called investment analysis, it's called casino psychology.
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