For oil, the current bearish news includes the restoration of Saudi pipeline capacity and the potential extension of the ceasefire period, while the bullish news includes Trump's threat of a blockade and the continued closure of the strait. These four pieces of news together form a complete game theory scenario: Saudi pipelines restored to 7 million barrels/day essentially provide Saudi Arabia with an alternative export route that bypasses the strait, directly weakening Iran's 'strait card' and reducing its leverage. If the war drags on for years, the entire Middle East will likely have pipelines built everywhere. This means that a prolonged war is not beneficial for Iran either, which forms the basis for both sides to continue negotiations. The UAE Crown Prince's visit to China at this time is definitely not a coincidence. The U.S.-Iran negotiations just ended, and Dubai's real estate, financial, and tourism industries have collectively collapsed due to the war. The Crown Prince's visit to China at this juncture is a hedging move—he’s not putting all his eggs in the U.S. basket. Israel's assessment of the ceasefire extension is actually a double-edged sword. During this period, it can freely strike Hezbollah, while Iran, mindful of the ceasefire agreement, cannot fully retaliate. Trump's 'maritime blockade' threat is essentially ineffective because you can't resolve one blockade with another. Trump's intention is likely that if Middle Eastern countries can't export oil through the strait, then Iran might as well not export at all. But the problem is that Iran's major customer is China, and Trump can't completely ignore China's stance. Overall, the bullish and bearish forces on oil prices are indeed becoming more balanced. However, there’s a structural shift: the restoration of Saudi pipelines means the marginal impact of the strait blockade is diminishing, and the price fluctuation center might be slightly lower than previously expected.