Analyst: The US and Iran have not reached an agreement, and Bitcoin may fall back to $65000 On April 12th, according to Forbes, after 21 hours of negotiations, US Vice President Vance stated that an agreement could not be reached and Iran refused to commit to abandoning its nuclear weapons program. Trump has previously warned that if negotiations fail, Iran will be "completely destroyed". The Iran conflict has shaken the cryptocurrency market for weeks, compounded by the impact of tariffs, causing Bitcoin to drop below $70000 earlier this month. Before the negotiations began, cryptocurrency analysts stated that if an agreement is reached, Bitcoin is expected to rise to $80000; If the negotiations break down, it may fall back to $65000. On the long side, data from on chain wallets shows that the largest Bitcoin whale in terms of holdings has continued to buy rather than sell during periods of intense geopolitical turmoil. The logic is that if the conflict further escalates and leads to a disruption of oil supply in the Persian Gulf, causing an increase in oil prices, a rebound in inflation, and a delay in interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, scarce assets such as Bitcoin and gold often perform well in this context. On the bearish side, Peter Schiff, a gold trader and long-term Bitcoin bear, stated that as the conflict intensifies, investors will shift their focus from Bitcoin to gold. Peter Schiff predicts that Bitcoin will 'collapse', stating that gold is the only true safe haven asset during wartime, and further suggesting that insiders within the administration may be profiting from the volatility of news surrounding the conflict. If Trump fulfills his threat of 'complete destruction', the stock market and cryptocurrency market will almost certainly be simultaneously sold off. In terms of follow-up progress, Vance remained firm in his attitude at the press conference, but did not rule out the possibility of continuing negotiations. The Speaker of the Iranian Parliament demanded a ceasefire in Lebanon and the lifting of asset freezes before participating in formal negotiations. For Bitcoin traders, the key to the next 72 hours lies in two questions: whether the ceasefire agreement can be maintained and whether Trump will escalate the conflict. At present, there are still giant whale wallets that continue to buy at the current price, indicating that at least some large investors are betting on the situation to stabilize.