Macro outlook for next week: US Iran talks fail to reach agreement, geopolitical risks reignite, Federal Reserve officials speak out intensively According to BlockBeats, on April 12th, after a brief cooling of the ceasefire, the situation in the Middle East took a sharp turn for the worse over the weekend. The 21 hour negotiations between the United States and Iran ended in failure to reach an agreement - Iran refused to accept the "no nuclear weapons" clause proposed by the US, US Vice President Vance announced the end of the dialogue but left room for wording, and Trump's previously announced two-week suspension of attacks is approaching and its destination is unclear. At the same time, the US destroyer claimed to have completed the first post-war passage through the Strait of Hormuz, but Iranian officials immediately denied that the information war between the two sides was still ongoing. Next week, geopolitics will once again dominate market sentiment, and every news about the situation in Hormuz could become a trigger for asset prices. In addition to geopolitics, the core focus of next week's macro calendar will be on two clues: first, the intensive statements of Federal Reserve officials combined with the release of the Beige Book, providing policy signals for the market; Secondly, the US March PPI released on Tuesday will become a key data measure of the extent to which energy price shocks are transmitted to the production end. At the same time, banking giants such as Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan Chase, and Citigroup will officially kick off the first quarter earnings season. The specific event time is as follows: Tuesday 20:30, March PPI annual and monthly rates in the United States; On Wednesday at 00:15, 2022, FOMC voting committee member and Chicago Fed Chairman Goolsby attended a panel discussion at the Semafor World Economic Conference; On Wednesday at 00:45, Federal Reserve Governor Barr delivered the opening speech for the working forum; At 01:00 on Wednesday, Philadelphia Federal Reserve Chairman Huck, Richmond Federal Reserve Chairman Barkin, Boston Federal Reserve Chairman Collins, and Board Member Barr attended a fireplace talk together; At 01:40 on Thursday, Federal Reserve Governor Bauman gave a speech; At 02:00 on Thursday, the Federal Reserve released its economic status brown book; Thursday 20:30, initial jobless claims for the week ending April 11th in the United States, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index for April; At 20:35 on Thursday, FOMC Permanent Voting Committee and New York Fed Chairman Williams delivered a speech; On Thursday, to be determined, the European Central Bank will release the minutes of its March 19th interest rate meeting and the G20 finance ministers and central bank governors' meeting will be held. For the March PPI data released by the United States on Tuesday, this will be the first key report quantifying the extent to which energy price shocks caused by the Middle East conflict penetrate upstream production costs. Commerzbank economists have issued a clear warning that the transmission effect of energy prices on non energy commodities "may soon change", and once PPI exceeds expectations, it will further compress the Fed's interest rate cut window - and the current market has almost ruled out the possibility of interest rate cuts within the year. Next week, the US stock market officially enters the financial reporting season for the first quarter of 2026. Large banks such as Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan Chase will be the first to report their performance, followed by technology giants such as TSMC, ASML, Netflix, and others releasing data one after another. This financial reporting season is seen as a key window to test the profitability resilience of enterprises, the sustainability of AI demand, and the impact of the macro environment. (Golden Ten)