Polymarket "Iran-Israel/US Conflict Ends Before April 15" Probability Drops to 47%, Down 22% in 24 Hours
星球日报|Apr 12, 2026 03:40
Odaily Seer Prophet Channel monitoring shows that the probability of Polymarket's "Iran-Israel/US conflict ends before April 15" has dropped to 47%, down 22% in 24 hours; the probability of "Iran-Israel/US conflict ends before April 30" has dropped to 55%, down 16% in 24 hours. As of now, the total trading volume for the event contract "When will the Iran-Israel/US conflict end?" has exceeded $35.28 million.
The rules for this event contract are as follows: If, during the period from market creation to the specified end date (Eastern Time), there are 14 consecutive days without any qualifying military actions between Iran, Israel, and the US, the market will resolve as "Yes." Otherwise, the market will resolve as "No." The 14-day period can begin at any time between market creation and the specified end date (Eastern Time) and must continue until noon (12:00 PM Eastern Time)
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