看不懂的SOL
看不懂的SOL|Apr 11, 2026 14:31
Invisible Stock God: Managing $5 billion with an annualized rate of 20% and running for 16 years can be considered a god, outperforming 99.9% of fund managers. But before writing 'The Investment Knowledge I Learned from Darwin', almost no one knew about it. Prasad founded Nalanda Capital in 2007, investing only in Indian stocks and focusing on small and medium-sized companies. By 2023, the annualized rate of return after fees will be 20.3%. His investment philosophy has three key words: 1、 Exclude (Avoid). Flip the focus of investment decision-making from 'what to choose' to 'what not to choose'. The clearly excluded categories include: state-owned enterprises, high leverage companies, merger and acquisition addicts, distressed reversal type, automobile companies, airlines, contract manufacturers, textile OEM, and rapidly changing technology industries. Prasad would rather make the second type of mistake of "missing out on a good company" than the first type of mistake of "buying the wrong company". In the book, he provided a brilliant explanation using Bayesian theory. 2、 High ROCE (Buy). The only core screening criterion is a historical ROCE (Return on Capital Employed) of ≥ 20% for more than 10 years. Do not make forward-looking predictions, only focus on competitive advantages that have been validated over time. I prefer industries that are simple, boring, predictable, and have extremely slow changes (such as paint, underwear, and electrical products). 3、 Hold permanently. Self proclaimed as a 'permanent owner' rather than a speculator, with the motto 'Don't be lazy, be particularly lazy'. Only 9 companies were exited in 2016, with an average holding period of 11-14 years. Sell only in three situations: management integrity issues, fundamental deterioration of capital allocation, or initial investment judgment errors. Never sell due to overvaluation. Prasad's methodology is that the capital market, like nature, can only survive for the long term with the most "robust" species. He extracted three key concepts from the theory of evolution - excluding the fittest (avoiding losers), identifying the fittest (buying winners), and patiently waiting for compound interest (holding forever) - as the three pillars of investment. He extensively uses biological metaphors in his book: sea urchins have survived for millions of years (robustness), bees' foraging strategies (satisfaction rather than optimality), and silver fox domestication experiments (observability of management traits). However, I discovered a secret: Nalanda Capital's heavy position building period was during the 2008 financial crisis, when the Indian market fell by 60%, which was a huge starting point advantage. So, methodology and timing together created his' myth '. Furthermore, since reaching its peak in 24 years, the net value of Nalanda Capital has significantly decreased in 25 years, and the return may have dropped to 15-17% since its establishment. And Prasad is also selling stocks - never say 'forever' lightly. What a ruthless mean regression! By comparison, it is true that only Buffett is the "true god", even though he later returned to index returns. So, using Prasad's methodology, which Chinese companies would you buy? I built a framework using Claude and researched it, and the answer is: None. The closest one is Maotai, as it is a state-owned enterprise, we do not touch it; Tencent is okay, but the business is too complex. If the standards are lowered, the AI version of Prasad will only reluctantly fall in love with NetEase.
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