Short Review of BTC Market Trend: Short term bullish trend, oscillating upward rebound Figure 1: Fund Flow of ETF Institutions On April 9th, there was a net inflow of $358 million, and on April 10th, there was a net inflow of $240 million. For two consecutive days, there has been a large net inflow of approximately $600 million, indicating that institutional funds are indeed flowing back. However, the net inflow on April 10th decreased by about $120 million compared to April 9th, indicating a weakened intensity. The enthusiasm of ETF institutions to buy BTC has increased, but the overall amount is not large. Judgment: Excessive, but persistent to be observed. If it turns into outflow in the future, it is a warning of a reversal. Figure 2: Amount data in the order book Larger entrusted selling amounts began to emerge, with a selling column approaching $40 million around 75000, comparable to the selling pressure level at 76000. The selling pressure gradually increases within the range of 72000-75000 yuan, and the higher the price, the heavier the selling pressure. The selling pressure in the range of 69000 to 72000 is relatively light. Judgment: biased towards emptiness. 75000 is a strong resistance zone, and the price will encounter real selling pressure at this point. Figure 3: Four hour long short energy The current energy belongs to the "secondary energy pulse" level, not the primary energy. The surge on April 9-10 was driven by CPI news and lacked sustainability. The trading volume on April 10th has shrunk compared to April 9th, indicating a lack of willingness to chase higher prices. The 4-hour candlestick pattern shows a "fluctuating upward" structure, but the bullish line gradually becomes smaller and the upper shadow line begins to appear. From the perspective of the volume energy fluctuation curve, the performance of bulls is relatively stable in terms of output volume energy, while the volume energy of bears fluctuates from high to low. Overall, bulls have a slight advantage; Judgment: Neutral is more common, but signs of energy depletion are beginning to appear. We need to observe whether the trading volume can continue to increase in the next 2-3 days. Figure 4: Technical Form of Weekly Lines The small bullish candlestick that has shown a steady upward trend for two consecutive weeks seems to have formed a golden cross at a low level in MACD. However, do not be confused by the so-called golden cross in MACD. Currently, it is still in the fourth wave of dead cat rebound oscillation at the weekly level. The important turning time window around April 22 cannot be ignored. Fundamental Macroeconomics and Geopolitics: 1) The CPI was 0.9% month on month and 3.3% year-on-year, which is in line with expectations. The market interpretation is that 'bad news has been digested', not strongly dovish. Some financial media and economists have started to sing more. 2) The two-week ceasefire agreement between the United States and Iran will expire on April 22nd. The talks will be held in Islamabad over the weekend (April 11-12). The gap in core demands between the two sides is huge, and the probability of reaching a substantive agreement within two weeks is very low. Short term is neutral, and April 22nd is a watershed. Market Summary and Prediction: 1) The daily level has exceeded 73000 and is currently testing the 76000 direction. 76000 is the downward trend line since the high point of 126000 fell. The Fibonacci channel displays approximately 74500 at position 1.272 and 79500 at position 2.0. The order book shows that there is a selling pressure of -40 million near 75000, which coincides highly with the Fibonacci 1.272 position. 74500-75000 is a strong resistance zone, and breaking through requires increasing volume. It remains to be seen whether the trading volume and long positions will increase next week. The Bitcoin market next week is still showing a short-term upward trend, with a high probability of continuing to fluctuate and rise, but the resistance above is increasing. If there is a bearish attack, the volatile rebound market may fail prematurely. 2) Important midline trend direction change window (April 18-22): My personal prediction is that around April 22nd will be the highest probability window for the fourth wave to end and the fifth wave to open. The high point of BTC price rebound is likely to be in the range of 74500-76000, with a small probability of 79500. Please refer to the following article for a detailed analysis of the important change time window at the weekly level, as well as predictions of market trends and corresponding trading strategies. The article "Countdown to Major Changes: Bitcoin's 4th Wave at the Weekly Level Has Only 10 Days Left, and the 5th Wave of Decline is about to Start Wishing everyone a pleasant weekend!