2026.4.11 Macro Analysis Ceasefire expectations between the U.S. and Iran are heating up. $BTC rebounded, oil prices plummeted, and strong altcoins like $ZEC and $HYPE are surging hard. Yesterday’s CPI met expectations, but if oil prices stay high, inflation will still be tough to truly bring down. Although a rate cut in April seems unlikely, the market is still betting on a rate cut within the year, which is driving risk assets higher. I think it might be a good idea to take some profits for now—market expectations have pretty much played out. Usually, the most fearful moments are the bottom, and when everyone is bullish, it’s often close to the top. Trading is all about overcoming human nature, finding quality assets, and waiting to buy at lower levels. Right now, the biggest variable is still the ceasefire negotiations, and the outcome will likely be revealed within 24 hours. If the talks succeed, oil prices will drop, and risk assets will rise. If the talks fail, oil prices will rise, and risk assets will fall. Most people currently believe the talks will succeed. But honestly, I have no idea what the outcome will be. I’m choosing to wait—I’d rather stay on the sidelines!