U.S. CPI comes out below the 3.4% expectation, but the headline tells a narrow story. Gasoline posted its largest single-month surge on record (+21.2%), driven by a global oil supply disruption. Energy accounted for ~75% of the monthly move. Core CPI is at a calm 2.6% YoY – right on the Fed's target. Post-print, rate markets are unanimously expecting the Fed to hold rates steady in April, meaning no policy shock. One supply-driven spike doesn't rewrite the macro picture. For now the underlying trend favors risk-on assets.(Nexo)