OIL PATH COULD SWING GLOBAL GDP BY OVER $1 TRILLION. Oil is holding below $100 as markets weigh fragile ceasefire risks against potential escalation. Bloomberg’s base case: prolonged low-intensity conflict → slower global growth (2.9% in 2026) and higher inflation (~4.2% peak). Central banks are likely to pause near term, then resume cuts. Scenarios vary widely: Oil at $170 → major downside Oil at $65 → strong rebound(*Walter Bloomberg)