Yesterday's February PCE can be skipped at will, but tonight's release of the March CPI requires high attention. Firstly, Iran has been relatively calm in recent days. Although the ceasefire is not yet complete, it has cooled down. Therefore, in the absence of a new narrative about the war, the influence of macro data may once again increase. In addition, Trump, at the risk of being spurted, forcefully promised Iran ten truces in exchange for a ceasefire in response to the release of inflation data may mean that the data is not optimistic. Secondly, discerning people know that since the outbreak of the war on February 28th, the surge in oil prices has transmitted to prices, and the US CPI is bound to explode, but they do not know the specific degree of quantification after numerical analysis. The market currently expects an annual rate of 3.3% and a monthly rate of 0.9%, while the core CPI is expected to have an annual rate of 2.7% and a monthly rate of 0.3%. Note that in this set of data, the annual rate is year-on-year and the monthly rate is month on month. From an economic perspective, the actual impact of gasoline prices rising from around $2 per gallon to $4 per gallon is bound to be significant. But from a political perspective, the CPI data can rise this time, but it needs to be controlled; CPI cannot be forced to whitewash the situation without rising, making people doubt it, but the data cannot be too high to scare the market. Judging from the forced ceasefire before the data is released, this data will definitely face significant political interference. In the case of strong control over the market, the optimal solution is to provide a non seasonally adjusted annual rate of around 3.3% (which is in line with expectations), and the core monthly rate is the key focus area. Let's see if we need to use the "rounding method" again for expected regulation this time. For example, the impact of the same 0.3% on market expectations varies greatly depending on whether it decreases from 0.34% to approximately 0.3% or increases from 0.26% to approximately 0.3%. So after the data is released, we actually need to focus on the raw values that have not been rounded. What we need to observe is the change in market expectations for interest rate cuts after tonight's data release. Prior to this, the market had already begun to spread interest rate expectations wildly. From the actual situation of the US economy, the possibility of interest rate hikes is extremely low, but the risk market trades on expectations. Although the probability of interest rate hikes landing is extremely low, the possibility of market collapse still exists. In short, if the released data meets or slightly exceeds expectations, the market may be relatively calm and can convince itself that the most difficult moment has passed. But if the data exceeds expectations, the market may panic. If the data is lower than expected, then hurry up and run. If you dare to release such fake data, it means that the situation has deteriorated beyond imagination, and the National Bureau of Statistics no longer has the ability to conduct normal business.