March CPI Outlook for the United States: Inflation may experience an 'explosive' rebound According to Golden Finance, on Friday, April 10th at 20:30, the United States will release its March CPI data, with an expected annual CPI rate of 3.3%, higher than the previous value of 2.40%; It is expected that the monthly rate will record 0.9%, higher than the previous value of 0.30%. The core CPI excluding food and energy is expected to increase by 0.3% month on month, higher than the previous value of 0.20%; The year-on-year growth rate is expected to rise to 2.7%, higher than the previous value of 2.50%. Although there has been a slight rebound in oil prices recently due to the temporary easing of geopolitical tensions, the previous wholesale prices have already been transmitted to the retail end. Analysts point out that if energy costs continue to remain high, inflation shocks may continue throughout the first half of the year. In addition to visible oil prices, more sticky inflationary pressures are spreading in the commodity sector. Due to the current trade tariff policies, input costs in areas such as food, household appliances, and personal care are continuously rising. Goldman Sachs analysts Jessica Rindels and Ronnie Walke pointed out that tariffs are being transmitted layer by layer through the supply chain to end consumers. Morgan Stanley General Rules states that even if oil prices fall in the future, the increase in food and durable goods prices caused by tariffs will continue to drag down household purchasing power. LPL Financial Chief Economist Jeffrey Roach predicts that price growth in the healthcare, housing, and vehicle categories will accelerate in March. He said, "Regardless of the activity and pressure in the Middle East, inflation is still higher than the level expected by the Federal Reserve." However, he expects price pressures in the housing and durable goods markets to ease in the second half of 2026.