BIT: Bitcoin is in a clearly oversold range, but it is uncertain whether the downward trend has ended

Odaily Planet Daily reports that BIT released a weekly report stating that the announcement of a ceasefire, rising inflationary pressures, and the transition phase for the Federal Reserve Chair nomination are all factors that should, under normal circumstances, lead to more significant market volatility. However, Bitcoin's overall reaction remains relatively limited. The subdued market response despite the successive landing of multiple variables is noteworthy. From a geopolitical perspective, the ceasefire arrangement reached under Trump's push still faces significant uncertainties in actual implementation. Iran's influence on transit arrangements in the Strait of Hormuz remains strong, and related shipping traffic is noticeably below normal levels. From a technical perspective, Bitcoin is already in a clearly oversold range, with some indicators beginning to show marginal recovery. However, it is still too early to conclude that the downward trend has ended based solely on these signals. In 2022, a similar oversold condition persisted for several months, during which rebound signals appeared but ultimately failed to form an effective reversal. Rather than focusing on whether indicators are rebounding, it is more important to pay attention to which price level will trigger market repricing and the outcomes of two key events next week.