This assignment is even more difficult to write, as it still revolves around the geopolitical conflict between Iran and the United States. The biggest risk now is Israel's attack on Lebanon. Even just now, Netanyahu specifically stated that Lebanon will not cease fire and Israel is willing to engage in peace negotiations, while Iran's Foreign Minister stated that it would be foolish for the United States to allow Israel to continue attacking Lebanon, thereby endangering the regional ceasefire. I think Trump is also in a big position now. He should really want to cease fire. After all, there is a sign that the oil price has just dropped. Now the WTI has risen back, and today the maximum is up to $102. Because the Strait of Hormuz has been closed by Iran again, the cease-fire does not help the oil price much. The main reason why Netanyahu is unwilling to cease fire may still be his unwillingness to allow Hezbollah to retain its armed forces and border threats. However, apart from the strong oil price, the market is very optimistic now. The rise of the US stock market and BTC is quite promising, and the market still believes that the ceasefire can proceed smoothly. However, if oil prices continue to rise, or even if they remain at the current level of less than $100, it will not be of much help to inflation in the United States. The smooth passage of the Strait of Hormuz is still very important. Looking back at the data of Bitcoin, the market sentiment is still good, and the turnover rate is also decreasing. However, the trading volume has not shown much improvement, indicating that the current funds and liquidity are still not ideal. The main reason for the price increase should be the decrease in selling. The market is willing to believe that the ceasefire between Iran and the United States can continue. Bitget VIP， Lower rates and more generous benefits