Trump plans to bypass Iran entirely and force oil tankers back into the Strait of Hormuz. On the second day of the ceasefire, the number of tankers in the strait remains extremely low, with only a handful passing through. Before the war, the daily traffic here exceeded 100 vessels. This kind of 'reckless' forced navigation logic hits intermediaries the hardest—those trying to profit from geopolitical volatility through energy arbitrage. If the supply volume can quickly bounce back from single digits to the scale of hundreds of ships, the energy price narrative will instantly shift from 'supply shortage' to 'logistics recovery.' The key focus now isn’t Iran’s stance, but the slope of this tanker traffic rebound.