Brothers and sisters, the US core CPI data is about to be released (8:30 tonight Beijing time), and the BTC consignment sales area on the order book begins to show a large amount. The higher the price rebounds, the larger the entrusted selling amount, and there is heavy pressure above. After conducting in-depth analysis based on the Fibonacci channel and the three-dimensional integrated trading system, I have come to the core conclusion that BTC will rebound in the future: If the Bitcoin price subsequently breaks through 73500, the probability of the next rebound target being around 74500 is about 40%, the probability of going to 76500 is about 15%, and the probability of going to 79500 (below 80000) is less than 5%. 74500 is a technically achievable goal, 76500 is a low probability but possible, and 79500 requires multiple positive resonances of perfect storm level, which currently cannot be seen as sufficient support. 1、 The technical location of the Fibonacci Channel The Fibonacci channel plotted from the low point of 59828 on February 28th to the high point of 71531 on April 8th shows that the 1.0 expansion level 71531 has been touched and is currently at the suppression level. The next natural target is the 1.272 extension, corresponding to the 74200-74800 region, which is around 74500. This is the gravitational force inherent in the Fibonacci channel structure. 2、 What conditions are required for BTC price to rebound to 74500? Firstly, CPI data must be lower than expected or in line with expectations but interpreted as positive by the market. If the CPI exceeds expectations, there is basically no need to think about 74500. Secondly, there must be a selling pressure wall where the bullish candlestick consumes 72500-73000, and it cannot be slowly worn away. The trading volume needs to exceed the high point on April 8th, and new long positions are needed to intervene. Thirdly, ETF funds require continuous net inflows, with BlackRock and Fidelity leading the way at the same time. On April 8th, there was a net outflow of 125 million, and institutions were clearly cautious above 72000. To see 74500, this attitude must be reversed. Fourthly, the structure of the head, shoulders, and top will be damaged. The current highest point for the right shoulder is 72728, and breaking through 73500 means that the right shoulder has failed and needs to be re evaluated for mid-term trends. 3、 What is needed for BTC price to rebound to 76500? In addition to the above conditions, it is also necessary for the CPI data to be significantly lower than expected, allowing the market to reprice the expectation of interest rate cuts. At the same time, ETFs continue to experience significant inflows, with a daily average of 300-500 million US dollars. After the price breaks through 73500, approximately $6 billion of short positions will be forcibly liquidated, forming a self reinforcing upward trend. In addition, the ceasefire agreement must be substantively implemented and the Strait of Hormuz remains open. At present, the probability of these conditions being met simultaneously is about 15%, which is a small probability but not impossible. 4、 What is needed for BTC price to rebound to 79500? This is near the Fibonacci 1.618 extension 78762. To reach this position, all of the above conditions need to be met simultaneously, coupled with fully established expectations of interest rate cuts, institutional FOMO entering the market, and retail sentiment shifting from extreme fear to greed. This requires multiple positive resonances at the perfect storm level, with a current probability of less than 5%. 5、 The probability distribution of BTC's subsequent rebound price is as follows: Between 72500-73500, with a probability of 55%, the current structure and CPI meet expectations. Between 73500-74500, with a probability of 30%, the CPI is lower than expected and the volume will increase to break through. Between 74500 and 76500, with a probability of 10%, CPI significantly lower than expected plus short selling. 76500-79500 range, probability 5%, multiple positive resonance, extremely low probability. 6、 Inspiration for Trading Strategies 72500-73500 is still the highest probability of rebounding, which is supported by current data. If the price unexpectedly breaks through 73500, don't panic. 74500 is the next natural target, but it requires buying support from real gold and silver. At that time, you can add a short position near 74500, set the stop loss above 76500, or wait for the price to retrace to 73000 to confirm that the breakthrough is invalid before entering the market. Above 76500 is an extreme zone, and the probability is currently very low. If it really arrives, it's a cash slot because the downward space is much greater than the upward space. The core conclusion remains unchanged: under the condition that CPI data meets expectations, the highest probability of rebound peak price is in the range of 72800-73500; A rebound to 74500 is technically achievable, but it requires CPI data and volume to match. Currently, there is not enough support to rebound to 79500, and the probability is extremely low, which can be basically ignored. ----Mr. Xiaolong