Looking at BTC tonight, I tend to fluctuate and rise. In the past 24 hours, there have been three key changes in the market. Firstly, there is still news of a ceasefire in the Middle East, but it is clearly unstable, and oil prices have risen again today, indicating that risk aversion has not completely dissipated. Secondly, the US stock market saw a significant rebound in ceasefire sentiment the night before, but today it has started to give up from pre-market to Asian trading, and the market has returned from excitement to caution. Thirdly, there are both incremental and divergent views in the cryptocurrency community. Morgan Stanley's Bitcoin ETF made a good first day profit, but the overall net outflow of US spot Bitcoin ETFs indicates that institutions are not blindly chasing higher prices, but rather cashing out while rising. So the current market is not the kind of strong one side that can be pursued with closed eyes, but it is not weak enough to immediately go short. BTC's ability to remain stable around $71000 in an environment with significant macro and geopolitical noise indicates that it is still being accepted. As long as the situation in the Middle East does not deteriorate significantly tonight, the US stock market should not weaken sharply again. BTC is likely to continue to fluctuate at a high level and then try to rise. Let's see if it continues to recover. What we really need to worry about is the continued outflow of ETFs combined with the decline of risky assets, which will push the short-term rhythm back.